Seminars: SSRI International Virtual Seminar, Jan. 25 2021

“The Situation in International Relations and Security Environment in East Asia and the Response of the International Community”

The security situation in the East Asia has been worsening seriously in this decade. Especially, the People’s Republic of China, PRC, has been claiming the Senkaku Islands as its territory since 1970s, while Japan owns it as inherent territory under the effective control for a long time. The number of intrusion cases into the territorial and contiguous waters around the islands by vessels of the Chinese Coast Guard, CCG, are recorded maximum numbers of days in the last year. They are so frequent and aggressive that the Japanese Coast Guard should fully operate to respond its activities all the time.

The SSRI focuses on the PRC’s continuous challenges to change the status quo of the Senkaku Islands by force. The purpose of the seminar is to make the world aware more closely of the PRC’s maritime expansion and its coercive tactics of repetitive intrusion by the CCG vessels and fishery boats, and to discuss how the international community should respond it.

Seven scholars from worldwide including Australia, Belgium, France, Philippines, Vietnam, the United Kingdom, and the United States got together with Japanese experts and share the opinions and comments on the strategy and tactics of the PRC, possibilities of military aggression to the Senkaku Islands, and strategy and action to be taken by Japanese Government including the lessons learned in the South China Sea.

The discussion lasted for 3.5 hours in total.

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Program

0:00-0:05	Talking photo and Opening Address by LL.M. Susumu Takaki, President of SSRI
0:05-0:15	Keynote Presentation by LL.M. Susumu Takai; “PRC’s Maritime Challenge and Rapidly Changing Security Environment in the East China Sea”
0:15-0:40	Session 1 PRC’s maritime expansion and its influence on the region 1) Panelist Comment 2) Moderator question to the panelists 3) Discussion
0:40-1:05	Session 2 Possibilities of PRC’s aggression on the Senkaku Islands 1) Panelist Comment (3 minutes each) 2) Moderator question to the panelists 3) Discussion
1:05-1:30	Session 3 Possible countermeasures/ actions recommended for deterring aggression 1) Panelist Comment (3 minutes each) 2) Moderator question to the panelists 3) Discussion
1:30-1:35	Wrap up by moderator (Gen. Osamu Onoda)
1:35-1:40	Closing remarks

Discussions

Session 1

“PRC’s Maritime Expansion and its Influence on the Region”

“How do you diversify supply chains if your trade relationship (with the PRC) becomes hostage to a security relationship?” (Dr. Robert McLaughlin, Australia)
“What has happened in Southeast Asia, especially Philippines and Vietnam, are previews of what the China probably is preparing to do in Japan.” (Dr. Jay Batongbacal, Philippines)
“China is not recognizing the international tribunals ruling but it is heavily investing on fighting back the counter legal arguments.” (Dr. Nguyen Hung Son, Vietnam)
“Our biggest worry is that we will see every production of some of the behavior that we see in the immediate periphery, a little bit further away.” (Dr. Eva Pejsova, France)
“The CCP rethinks some of their actions and slowly reigning and come back towards a more constructive conversation beyond the ultra-declarations of Davos.” (Dr. Alessio Patalano, the U.K.)

Session 2

Possibilities of PRC’s Aggression on the Senkaku Islands

“China and Russia are masters at operating in the so called gray zone or below the threshold of armedconflict.” (Dr. James Kraska, the U.S.)
“The PRC doesn't act logically, especially now, this is a very sensitive time for the PRC.” (Dr. Nguyen Hung Son, Vietnam)
“Chinese objective is to go after Japanese fishermen to prove that they are exercising their law enforcement and rights.” (Dr. Alessio Patalano, the U.K.)
“Enactment of the Coast Guard Law means that the PRC has already accomplished their readiness of the invasion” (Dr. Yoshiaki Yano, Japan)
“If I would be from the perspective of a Chinese strategist, I would definitely not start any assertive action in the East China Sea.” (Dr. Eva Pejsova, France)

Session 3

Possible Countermeasures / Actions to be Recommended for Deterring Aggression

“The gray zone tactics we all should share the techniques, the methods in responding to them.” (Dr. Jay Batongbacal, Philippines)
“Right now, Japan really relies almost upon just the moral authority of its ownership over those islands and I think that will grow become riskier.” (Dr. James Kraska, the U.S.)
“The East China Sea issue is much less well known, and certainly much less well understood.” (Dr. Robert McLaughlin, Australia)
“The mutual support for building up the capabilities to keep the order and the stability of the free and open Indo-Pacific region is critical for all countries” (Dr. Yoshiaki Yano, Japan)

Wrap up

“The Situation in International Relations and Security Environment in East Asia and the Response of the International Community"

PRC’s maritime expansion, along with its economic and trade expansion, has been conducted in order to ensure national security and national interests.
On the other hand, there exists the reality that Beijing sometimes uses coercive tactics by interpreting international law to its own advantage for optimizing national security and maximizing national interests. The PRC’s maritime expansion is also understood for acquiring a certain political and diplomatic dominance in the region. It looks clear that Xi Jinping is building up the power into “Chinese Dream” focusing on 2049, hundred year’s anniversary of the PRC.
Most panelists forecast military aggression for occupying the islands is less likely. The PRC tries to take administrative control of the Senkakus using law enforcement activities a s well a s political, d iplomatic, economic, informational challenges below the threshold of armed conflict.
It seems to be difficult to make the PRC change the assertive strategy to be more moderate, but international society should cooperate to cope with the PRC’s assertion. Japan should be vigilant and transparent on the challenges to the Senkaku Islands. Also Japan should prepare contingencies for the military aggression to the Senkakus and to Taiwan in order to deter the PRC attempt.

This international virtual seminar hosted by the SSRI is entrusted with Japanese government, but the contents of the seminar is not a view of the government.

Seminar Digest(60min) on YouTube