Seminars: SSRI International Virtual Seminar, December 9, 2021

“Changes of the situation in the international relations and security environment in East Asia and the Response of the International Community”

The security situation in the East Asia has been worsening seriously in this decade. Especially, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has been claiming the Senkaku Islands as its territory since 1970s, while Japan owns it as inherent territory with effective control for a long time. The PRC has been trying to impress on the world that the Senkaku Islands are its territory by the CCG vessels patrolling around. The number of intrusion cases into the territorial and contiguous waters around the islands by China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels are recorded maximum numbers of days in 2020.

The PRC adopted the "Coast Guard Law" which went into effect on February 1, 2021. It specifically stipulates the duties of the CCG which retains the authority to forcibly remove vessels as well as buildings and structures installed on islands that violate Chinese domestic laws in China's "jurisdictional waters". In the event of unlawful intrusion or violation of national sovereignty, the CCG was empowered to take all necessary measures, including the use of arms for eliminating them. The PRC’s challenges to change the status quo of the Senkaku Islands by not only accumulating fait accompli but more coercive measures predicted in near term. The situation has entered a new and dangerous stage.

The SSRI focuses what is the most effective way to avoid armed conflict in the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands, while at the same time deterring the "contest of initiative" from escalating into use of arms or use of force. Japan and the PRC established the Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism (MACM) in 2018 to avert accidental clashes in the air and at sea, especially around the Senkaku Islands. The SSRI wonders whether this mechanism works for avoiding clashes. The third purpose of the seminar is how Japan make the world aware more closely of PRC’s maritime expansion and its coercive tactics and how the international community should respond it.

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Program

0:00-0:05	Talking photo and Opening Address by LL.M. Susumu Takaki, President of SSRI
0:05-0:15	Keynote Presentation by LL.M. Susumu Takai; “Maritime Security Environment in the East China Sea after the latest Coast Guard Law of the PRC”
0:15-0:45	Session 1 The effectiveness of the Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism between Japan and China 1) Panelist Comment (5 minutes each) 　- VADM. Yoji Koda 　- Dr. Nguyen Hung son 　- Dr. James Kraska 2) Discussion coordinated by moderator 　- Prof. Akiko Okamatsu
0:45-1:15	Session 2 Measures to avoid escalation from confrontation to armed conflict between law enforcement vessels of Japan and China 1) Panelist Comment (5 minutes each) 　- Dr. Jay Batongbacal 　- Dr. Robert McLaughlin 　- Dr. Alessio Patalano 2) Discussion coordinated by moderator
1:15-1:50	Session 3 How to effectively communicate the danger of the Senkaku Islands issue to the world 1) Panelist Comment (5 minutes each) 　- Dr. Eva Pejsova 　- Dr. Nguyen Hung son 　- Dr. Elena Atanassova-Cornelis 2) Discussion coordinated by moderator
1:50-1:55	Wrap up by moderator (Prof. Akiko Okamatsu)
1:55-2:00	Closing remarks by LL.M. Susumu Takai

Discussions

Session 1

The effectiveness of the Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism between Japan and China

“China is continually trying to erode or diminish or water down the norms that are already binding in the international system.” (Dr. James Kraska, the U.S.)
“The bad side is, that does not cover preventive measure when two forces, or two military units are really in danger.” (Admiral Yoji Koda, Japan)
“Those officials have duty to implement Beijing orders and have very little impact on changing those orders.” (Dr. Nguyen Hung Son, Vietnam)

Session 2

Measures to avoid escalation from confrontation to armed conflict between law enforcement vessels of Japan and China

“CCG vessels have also been regularly present together with vessels of the Chinese maritime militia in the sea areas around Philippine occupied islands.” (Dr. Jay Batongbacal, Philippines)
“We obviously need to be aware that this use of lawfare is a growing tactic in hybrid warfare.” (Dr. Robert McLaughlin, Australia)
“The position of the Senkakus and the strategic dimension of the East China Sea, does not allow the Japanese government to think about the Senkakus just purely as a sovereignty dispute.” (Dr. Alessio Patalano, the U.K.)

Session 3

How to effectively communicate the danger of the Senkaku Islands issue to the world

“It (propaganda) allows Beijing to exercise control, and to win without fighting, which is really what we are talking about when we look at that Chinese strategy.” (Dr. Eva Pejsova, France)
“Younger generation of Europeans who will be our future European leaders and who will be engaging in Euro-Japanese relations.” (Dr. Elena Atannasova, Belgium)
“We should encourage the international community to speak more about both the East China Sea and the South China Sea in order to build the rule based international order.” (Dr. Nguyen Hung Son, Vietnam)

Panelists

Dr. Robert McLaughlin
Dr. Jay Batongbacal
Dr. Nguyen Hung Son
Dr. James Kraska
Dr. Alessio Patalano

Dr. Eva Pejsova
Dr. Elena Atannasova
Admiral Yoji Koda
Professor Akiko Okamatsu

Wrap up

“The Situation in International Relations and Security Environment in East Asia and the Response of the International Community"

There have been a lot of effort to reach an agreement of the Japan-China Maritime and Aerial Communications Mechanism (MACM) in 2018. But this is simply the communication mechanism, and does not cover preventive measure when both sides are really in danger situation. Many panelists are skeptical whether the PRC will comply with MACM because the PRC has been continually trying to erode or diminish the norms that are already binding in the international system.
China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels have been regularly present together with vessels of the Chinese maritime militia in the South China Sea backed by the PLA Navy vessels for the purpose of establishing de facto control through layers of coercive forces. Japan Coast Guard (JCG) maintains primacy of law enforcement around the Senkakus so far, but the PRC’s Coast Guard Law may introduce more aggressive behavior in future. From an operational perspective, it's not that the Coast Guard Law has significantly changed, but rather created a context for a political coverage to normalize what operationally had already been a trend that was in place. We should be aware of “lawfare” which is a growing tactic in hybrid warfare.
China is really trying to force Japan to acknowledge that there is a dispute over competing territorial claim of sovereignty, because Japan's position has been that there's no dispute over territories. Therefore, there is a tendency for Japan to be reluctant to communicate externally, while China became very expert at creating and then exploiting ambiguities to erode normative fundamentals which were thought to be settled. In order to maintain international attention on the Senkakus, it is important to promote the narrative that the problem are the same in the East China Sea and the South China Sea;
-　　to engage and support more with the academic and legal community
-　　to promote and gather diplomatic support, at the UN level for example
-　　to promote a much bigger map; rule of law ; Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) initiative
-　　to provide more detailed explanation on the history

Seminar Digest(72min) on YouTube