Seminars: SSRI International Virtual Seminar, December 9, 2021 • THE SENKAKUS

Seminars: SSRI International Virtual Seminar, December 12, 2022

BACKGROUND&PURPOSES
INTEREST
PROGRAM
DISCUSSIONS
WRAP UP

BACKGROUND&PURPOSES
INTEREST
PROGRAM

DISCUSSIONS
WRAP UP

“The Response of the International Community to the Situations in Recent and Future Security Situations in East Asia”

Dr. Elena Atanassova-Cornelis

Dr. Jay L Batongbacal

Dr. Nguyen Hung Son

Dr. James Kraska

Dr. Robert McLaughlin

Gen. Osamu Onoda

Dr. Alessio Patalano

Dr. Eva Pejsova

Professor Akiko Okamatsu

BACKGROUND&PURPOSES

Russia's invasion into Ukraine shook the world. One of the reasons for the invasion was that Ukraine is a brother country with the same roots as Russian. President Vladimir Putin's action overlaps with President Xi Jinping's ambition to change the status quo by force.

China has been strengthening its military and maritime law enforcement power over the past decade. China is pursuing “wolf warrior” diplomacy to forcefully secure its maritime interests in the East and the South China Sea through a hybrid strategy that combines military and law enforcement power.

Last summer, when U.S. House Speaker Pelosi visited to Taiwan, China protested vigorously and conducted military exercise with firing missiles into neighboring waters including Japanese EEZ. China demonstrated use of force for its “core interests” – Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands.

The SSRI focuses what is the most effective way to deter China’s aggression to the Senkaku Islands and to control "contest of initiative" from escalating into use of force. First, we should recognize the current situation around the islands and identify the risks at present and future under Xi’s third term. Second, we should find out the direction of effort to control those risks and to generate international concern.

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PROGRAM

0:00-0:05	Talking photo and Opening Address by LL.M. Susumu Takaki, President of SSRI
0:05-0:15	Keynote Presentation by LL.M. Susumu Takai; “Rising Tensions in the East China Sea”
0:15-1:00	Session 1 The Reality of China’s Wolf Warrior Diplomacy in the East China Sea and Japan’s Responses 1) Panelist Comment (5 minutes each) 　- Dr. Jay Batongbacal 　- Dr. Elena Atanassova-Cornelis 　- Gen. Osamu Onoda 　- Dr. Alessio Patalano 2) Discussion coordinated by moderator 　- Prof. Akiko Okamatsu
1:00-1:50	Session 2 How to deter China’s challenge for changing the status quo by force 1) Panelist Comment (5 minutes each) 　- Dr. James Kraska 　- Dr. Eva Pejsova 　- Dr. Robert McLaughlin 　- Dr. Nguyen Hung son 2) Discussion coordinated by moderator
1:50-1:55	Wrap up by moderator (Prof. Akiko Okamatsu)
1:55-2:00	Closing remarks by LL.M. Susumu Takai

DISCUSSIONS

Session 1

The reality of China’s wolf warrior diplomacy in the East China Sea and Japan’s responses

“China’s response to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan looks well prepared and calculated not only for warning Taiwan, the U.S. and allies, but also for changing status quo over the situation of Taiwan and the Senkakus.” (Gen. Osamu Onoda, Japan)
“We have seen in the South China Sea that China’s maritime militia vessels have been engaging in coordinated maneuvers and actions against Philippine government vessels.” (Dr. Jay Batongbacal, Philippines)
“Since COVID started, Chinese diplomatic efforts turned to be very robust, worse at times in the way it communicates with others.” (Dr. Alessio Patalano, U.K.)
“China very well understands that at the moment it's not the time for engaging in outright or fewer traditional military power conflicts.” (Dr. Elena Atannasova, Belgium)

Session 2

How to deter China’s challenge for changing the status quo by force

“The 1999 book, “Unrestricted Warfare” by the Chinese senior colonels of all domain conflicts. This is very different from the Western view, which is that there is the law of peace and that there is a law of war and these two are separate and distinct.” (Dr. James Kraska, U.S.)
“But that response carries risks for China that it might invite any dispute resolution process to look into the question of sovereignty over the Senkakus, which obviously play to Japan's favor” (Dr. Robert McLaughlin, Australia)
“This is something that is putting us closer with Japan, with other regional partners, and provides a much more concrete, strategic orientation towards future cooperation.” (Dr. Eva Pejsova, France)
“We need to show readiness for coordinated naval actions across agencies in responses to incidents among likeminded countries. Naming and shaming can be a very effective diplomatic deterrence, and that should supplement military deterrence. (Dr. Nguyen Hung Son, Vietnam)

Wrap up

China is trying to force Japan to acknowledge that there is a territorial dispute of the Senkaku Island and undermine Japan's administrative control over the islands by the coast guard backed by navy. China's strategy is “grey zone” activities with comprehensive means of whole government approach.
China has been strengthening military power. But most panelists observe that China does not want to divert resources to military confrontation because it still focuses on economic growth and modernization. We will see a lot of activities that looks very threatening because China prepares for war and act as if war is coming in order to prevent war. But its development of economy as a source of legitimacy is declining, dwindling, and Xi Jinping may have to use security as a new source of legitimacy.
China has also been using the divide and rule strategy, trying to separate claimants by pulling some of those closely in its economic orbit in order to avoid collective response of regional countries. Important tasks for Japan would be to prevent regional countries from conceding to China over Chinese pressure. We need to have an effective strategy to deal with economic coercion reducing dependency on any one source of export and import on strategic supply chains.
Gray zone activities need to be brought to the official agenda of a major multilateral security fora. We can also use technology in order to transparentize the maritime domain environment. Naming and shaming can be a very effective diplomatic deterrence, and that should supplement military deterrence.
The war in Ukraine made triple or quadruple side effects to Europe. One of them is a realization of the China threat which is now widespread across all member states. European countries are moving into the formation of like-minded partners in the region. Since Europe has been facing the hybrid tactics by Russia and boosting resilience, it can help Asia Pacific partners providing much more concrete, strategic orientation towards future cooperation.

Seminar Digest(68min) on YouTube